News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact

A tailor-made survey documents consumer perceptions of the U.S. economy’s response to a large shock: advent COVID-19 pandemic. The ran at daily frequency between March 2020 and July 2021. Consumer regarding output inflation react rapidly. Uncertainty is pervasive. business-cycle model calibrated views provides an interpretation. rise in household uncertainty amplifies pandemic recession by factor three. Different about monetary policy can explain why consumers professional forecasters agree on recessionary impact, but have sharply divergent inflation.